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ACUS11 KWNS 080407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080406
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Southwest KS...Far Western OK
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 080406Z - 080600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts possible. High
forecast uncertainty precludes higher watch probabilities but trends
will be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across southeast
CO (with new development also noted farther northwest near DEN).
Impetus for these new storms is likely a combination of lift along a
remnant outflow boundary, weak low-level upslope flow, and
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
moving through WY. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place
across the region (evidenced by the 00Z DNR sounding and recent RAP
forecast soundings) but nocturnal cooling has lead to increase
MLCIN. Even so, continued forcing from the mechanisms mentioned
above may result in storm persistence and/or additional storm
development. Moderate to strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk
shear around 40 to 50 kt) exists across the region, which is
supportive of updraft rotation and a resulting threat for hail and
strong wind gusts. Some potential for upscale growth into a more
organized linear system exists. Uncertainty in the overall forecast
evolution merits low watch probability but convective trends across
the region will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37890455 38880479 39070405 38970310 38720229 38200130
37290105 36930120 36700189 36990349 37890455



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