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ACUS11 KWNS 082307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082307
AZZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082307Z - 090130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that have developed along the Mogollon Rim
will probably develop southwestward into the lower terrain of
southern and central AZ this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely,
although radar trends will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...VWP over the past hour from the KFSX radar shows 15-25
kt of north-northeasterly flow in the 2-5 km AGL layer. This will
probably be enough for ongoing scattered covection along the
Mogollon Rim to advance southwestward into the lower terrain/valleys
of southern and central AZ this evening. Surface observations
indicate a very hot and well-mixed airmass is present across these
lower terrain areas, with multiple sites in/near the Phoenix metro
around 100 F, and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Moderate to
strong instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) should maintain
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the evening. Very steep
low and mid-level lapse rates will likely encourage efficient
downward momentum transfer in any thunderstorm, and isolated strong
to locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Very
isolated instances of large hail cannot be completely ruled out
either given the degree of instability present. Although watch
issuance remains unlikely at this time, if storms can organize into
a small cluster/line with relatively greater damaging wind
potential, then a watch could be considered for the Phoenix metro
area and vicinity in a few hours.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34971229 34581133 34061016 33080948 31610918 31280925
31291067 32781219 33411237 33841313 34431324 34841284
34971229



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