1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1264

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 08, 2018 21:53:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1533765193-55329-4142
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 082153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082152
    NCZ000-082245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

    Areas affected...central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 082152Z - 082245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) may focus
    across central NC between Charlotte and the Triangle. Scattered
    pockets of wind damage are probable.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an elongated fine line/gust front
    from Upstate SC north-northeastward into northwestern NC. A broken
    band of thunderstorms is moving east in tandem with an MCV located
    over the southern Appalachians. This band of storms has produced a
    38kt gust at KHKY and a 43kt gust at KBUY during the past
    hour---likely sufficient for pockets of wind damage. Surface
    conditions ahead of the line show temperatures in the lower 90s with
    lower 70s dewpoints. Despite the weak mid-level lapse rates, steep
    0-2 km lapse rates (around 8 degrees C/km) will support some of the
    stronger downdrafts to yield 45-60 mph gusts. Scattered damaging
    winds will occur in localized pockets where the water-laden
    downdrafts are most intense. Given the relatively confined area and
    expected coverage of damaging gusts (isolated), a severe
    thunderstorm watch is unlikely. However, the potential for damaging
    gusts may persist for the next 3-4 hours before diminishing
    instability lessens the straight-line wind threat.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 08/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35938081 35857985 35537892 35167897 35007927 35098090
    35938081



    ------------=_1533765193-55329-4142
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1533765193-55329-4142--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)