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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1242

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 06, 2018 17:27:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 061726
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061726
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-062000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan...Far Northeast
    Indiana...Far Northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 061726Z - 062000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely develop over the
    next couple of hours in southeast Lower Michigan. Damaging wind
    gusts and hail will be possible. A weather watch may need to be
    considered as cells intensify.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows south to southwest
    flow over much of the Ohio Valley with a corridor of maximized
    low-level moisture extending northeastward from the mid Mississippi
    Valley into the lower Great Lakes. Surface dewpoints along this
    corridor are in the lower to mid 70s F, which has resulted in
    moderate destabilization today. MLCAPE values are estimated to be in
    the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across southeast lower Michigan
    according to the RAP. Thunderstorms have gradually intensified
    across southwestern lower Michigan and this convection will continue
    to move into increasing instability early this afternoon. This
    combined with 0-6 km shear near 35 kt evident on the Detroit WSR-88D
    VWP will support a severe threat this afternoon. Cells should
    continue to organize as short line segments move eastward across
    southeast lower Michigan and possibly across far northeast Indiana
    and northwest Ohio through mid to late afternoon. Wind damage will
    be the primary threat but hail will also be possible in the stronger
    cores.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 42278237 41668262 41228362 41058459 41278533 41738564
    42258557 42568514 42698460 42778288 42478245 42278237



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