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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1239

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 06, 2018 00:06:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 060006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060005
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1239
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0705 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast WY...Western NE Panhandle...Far
    North-central CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060005Z - 060200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible across the region during the
    next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Several discrete cells are currently ongoing across
    east-central WY as well as more clustered activity across
    south-central and southeast WY. Impetus for this activity appears to
    be the somewhat stronger perturbation currently moving through
    southwest WY/northwest CO. Thermodynamically, the airmass is not
    particularly favorable for robust updrafts, but enough elevated
    instability still exists for storm development/maintenance. In
    contrast to the thermodynamics, very strong vertical shear exists
    across the region. The strong shear appears to be contributing to
    storm organization with storms generally lasting longer than the
    thermodynamics alone would suggest. Sporadic hail is possible with
    the stronger, more persistent storms during the next hour or two,
    particularly across southeast WY and vicinity where the
    thermodynamics are slightly better. Limited spatial extent and
    marginal nature of the severe risk will preclude the need for a
    watch.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 41710705 42610639 43060492 42790328 41040298 40520503
    40850645 41710705



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