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ACUS11 KWNS 042042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042042
NDZ000-SDZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Areas affected...Most of South Dakota and southern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042042Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Any storms which develop will be capable of large hail and damaging
winds.

DISCUSSION...Some cumulus towers have formed over the last hour in a
few locations across South Dakota and southern North Dakota
indicating a weakening capping inversion. RAP soundings indicate
CINH will be eliminated across most of the area between 21-22Z. The
boundary layer is deeply mixed across the area with dewpoints
ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. This yields MLCAPE values
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Weak forcing from the left exit region of
the upper jet should be sufficient for isolated storm development
this afternoon/evening. The 2012Z VWP from KUDX is sampling westerly
winds in excess of 50 knots above 6 km. Therefore, shear will be
sufficient for storm organization for any storms which may develop.
Deep layer shear is weaker into southern North Dakota and further
north which will limit the severe weather threat. The instability
and mid-level flow would support at least marginal supercell
organization. In addition, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
support a risk of both large hail and damaging winds from any storms
which develop. The widely scattered storm coverage which is expected
will likely preclude the need for a watch this afternoon or evening.

..Bentley.. 08/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 47840170 46860195 46240248 45690317 44910375 44190398
43820361 43570229 43550121 43450007 43679882 43939792
45009785 46179770 46579761 47159757 48959757 48999859
49000025 49020174 47840170



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