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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1191

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 29, 2018 04:10:52
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290410
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290410
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1191
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

    Areas affected...southwest through south central Kansas through
    northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 290410Z - 290615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage with a threat
    for isolated large hail and damaging wind through the early morning
    hours from southwest through south central Kansas into northwest
    Oklahoma. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

    DISCUSSION...Late this evening, storms are on the increase across
    southwest KS, possibly in association with a strengthening low-level
    jet and warm advection regime. Objective analysis indicates moderate instability in place with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, but a stable
    boundary layer suggests updrafts are slightly elevated. Latest HRRR
    runs appear on track and indicate this activity will increase in
    coverage as it develops eastward. Moderate instability, 7-7.5
    mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient effective bulk shear for
    mid-level updraft rotation will promote a risk for isolated large
    hail. The stronger storms may also be capable of localized strong to
    damaging wind gusts through the early morning.

    ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37270120 38210070 38739959 38459859 36739815 36080040
    37270120



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