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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1214

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 01, 2018 17:23:34
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 011723
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011723
    SCZ000-GAZ000-012000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1214
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

    Areas affected...East Georgia...southern into central South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 011723Z - 012000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, damaging wind gusts are possible with the
    stronger storms. No WW issuance appears warranted at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating, and deep-layer ascent glancing
    the region from the west in association with a highly meridional
    mid-level trough, has resulted in the initiation of scattered,
    disorganized storms. Continued heating and lift from the trough will
    support an increasing trend in coverage/intensity throughout the
    afternoon hours.

    Despite strong surface heating and relatively rich low-level
    moisture, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km), and
    deep-layer unidirectional meridional flow, with a lack of
    appreciable speed shear throughout the troposphere suggest that
    storm organization and intensity will be quite limited. A few of the
    stronger storms may produce wet downbursts with associated damaging
    wind gusts. As the wind threat is expected to be relatively marginal
    and isolated in nature, a WW issuance is not anticipated at this
    time.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 31398210 31718250 32078277 32798284 33418259 34108220
    34458191 34808160 34928132 34818091 34648059 34018028
    33648020 33008054 31398210



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