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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1204

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 30, 2018 11:27:31
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 301127
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301127
    OKZ000-TXZ000-301300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1204
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0627 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

    Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma through north central and
    northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326...

    Valid 301127Z - 301300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Portions of squall line may remain marginally severe as it
    moves through southeast Oklahoma and north central to northeast
    Texas through the early morning. Portion of WW 325 including the
    Fort Worth county warning area can be locally extended south if
    needed, but overall threat does not appear sufficient for an
    additional downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...Squall line from southeast OK into northwest TX is
    moving southeast at 30-35 kt. Strongest portion of the line remains
    over southeast OK where deep convergence appears maximized in
    vicinity of an just south of an MCV circulation. A corridor of
    moderate instability with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE persists downstream
    from the MCS, but a stable surface layer and weak to modest flow
    through 6 km should temper overall severe threat. Nevertheless,
    convergence along consolidated outflow boundary along with deeper
    forcing, and some augmentation of the wind profiles accompanying the
    MCV, should help sustain the storms through southeast OK and north
    TX few hours, where pockets of locally strong to marginally severe
    (40-50 kt) gusts remain possible.

    ..Dial.. 07/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33529741 33869682 34339617 34879554 34269513 33719536
    33169552 33039626 33099756 33529741



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