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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1200

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 30, 2018 00:19:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 300019
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300018
    KSZ000-COZ000-300145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1200
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0718 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 300018Z - 300145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat, likely associated with a leading supercell
    cluster, is expected to expand southeast through southeast Colorado
    into southwest Kansas this evening. Damaging wind and large hail
    will be the primary threats. A WW will likely be needed by 01Z south
    of WW 332 and 323.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cluster of storms including an
    embedded supercell is moving south southeast into east central CO
    near the KS border at around 35 kt. Tendency has been for new
    updrafts to form along western portion of attendant, surging outflow
    boundary. RAP point forecast soundings and Dodge City 00Z RAOB
    indicate a modest inversion around 700 mb over southwest KS.
    Nevertheless, an expansion in storm coverage is expected as the
    evolving cold pool interacts with the moderately unstable
    environment. Latest radar trends also indicate a broader-scale
    circulation (MCV) embedded within this complex of storms, and new
    updrafts are developing immediately downstream in west-central KS
    along what appears to be a warm advection wing. Given the favorable
    kinematic environment, upscale growth into an organized MCS appears
    likely with damaging wind becoming the main threat, though large
    hail will remain possible.

    ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38090314 38340128 38620018 37999926 37239918 37050016
    37060154 37250268 38090314



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