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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1195

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 29, 2018 19:13:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291912
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1195
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

    Areas affected...far southeast MT...portions of northern and central
    WY and far western SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291912Z - 292115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may briefly become severe this afternoon and
    evening. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with the
    strongest cells. The marginal nature of the threat will preclude
    watch issuance at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has begun over the higher terrain of
    northern WY this afternoon as temperatures have warmed into the mid
    70s to near 80 degrees. Modest boundary layer moisture remains
    across the region with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid
    50s beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km,
    resulting in weak to moderate destabilization. A weak upper
    shortwave impulse tracking east-southeast across the northern High
    Plains will provide deep layer forcing for ascent, and 0-6km shear
    around 30-50 kt across the MCD region will further aid in some
    updraft organization. All combined, this environment should be
    supportive of a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong
    wind gusts and hail. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a
    watch is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44580922 45220803 45650428 45130327 44820314 44430325
    44130354 43440496 42610575 42000591 41920657 42440799
    43700935 44580922



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