This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1532804639-1941-6847
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 281903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281903
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Areas affected...eastern NY...western MA...VT and NH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281903Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon. A
couple of strong gusts (40-55 mph) are possible and may result in
localized pockets of wind damage. Marginally severe hail may occur
with the strongest updrafts.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery show thunderstorms developing
over the Champlain Valley and the Hudson Valley with isolated storms
over southern VT/NH. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s
degrees F over the lower elevations ahead of a diffuse cold front
located over eastern NY. A mid-level shortwave trough is rotating
through the base of a larger-scale trough over Quebec but will
largely pass to the northwest of the Canadian border and primarily
influence convective development over the St. Lawrence Valley. Yet,
strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow over the region will
aid in storm organization. The overall intensity for thunderstorms
will be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates but a couple of
pockets of wind damage are possible with the stronger downdrafts.
Hail may also accompany the strongest cores before this activity
weakens by early evening. The coverage/duration and overall
magnitude of the severe risk will likely preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 45157381 45057161 44337093 43087095 41617403 42057442
45157381



------------=_1532804639-1941-6847
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1532804639-1941-6847--

--- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)