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ACUS11 KWNS 260041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260040
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...eastern Colorado/western and central
Kansas/southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 260040Z - 260245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues across the western half of Kansas/eastern Colorado vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms along the surface front
-- extending from southeast Colorado to northeast Kansas --
continues, moving south-southeast with time. Meanwhile, additional
storms are moving east-southeast out of the eastern Colorado plains
toward western Kansas, where a reservoir of moderate instability
remains.

This evening's DDC (Dodge City Kansas) RAOB indicates a deeply mixed
boundary layer beneath moderate high-based CAPE, and a wind field
veering from southerly at the surface to north-northwesterly at mid
levels. With a sufficient CAPE/shear environment for sustenance of
organized storms, and some low-level evaporative potential enhancing
the damaging wind risk somewhat, expect severe threat to continue
over the next few hours. While a stabilizing boundary layer this
evening should allow risk to gradually wane, some potential for
upscale growth into an organized cluster or two still exists, as a
southerly low-level jet increases over the next few hours. Should
such a cluster or two evolve, wind risk could persist/spread
southward longer than currently anticipated. Otherwise, risk
remains well-contained within the current watch.

..Goss.. 07/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 40200375 40610331 40590235 39890135 39820086 40099924
39839844 38869822 37609858 36979961 36930316 37740412
39140401 40200375



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