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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1145

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 23, 2018 18:40:30
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 231840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231840
    NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-232115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1145
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

    Areas affected...Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey...Pennsylvania...New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 231840Z - 232115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat will be possible this
    afternoon from parts of the Mid-Atlantic northward into central New
    York. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely across the region.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the
    Northeast this afternoon along a corridor of instability located
    from northeast Virginia northward into central New York. MLCAPE
    along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
    range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Sterling, VA and Binghamton,
    NY show unidirectional wind profiles above the boundary layer with
    0-6 km shear around 35 kt. This combined with 30 kt of flow at 850
    mb may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger
    multicells. The threat is expected to peak late this afternoon as
    instability becomes maximized across the region.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 07/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 43707649 43207702 42187693 41707695 40657786 39547801
    38467827 37777767 37457625 37747539 38757526 40637510
    42307508 43607552 43707649



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