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ACUS11 KWNS 230732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230731
FLZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Areas affected...portions of near-coastal west-central/northwestern
FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230731Z - 231000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts near severe limits may occur over the
discussion area from the eastern edge of a complex of thunderstorms
initially over the Gulf. Magnitude and coverage of severe threat
appear too low for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized, bowing MCS that developed over the
FL Panhandle is moving southeastward to south-southeastward about 30
kt across waters west of coastal Citrus/Hernando/Pasco Counties as
of 715Z. The eastern portion of this complex will straddle an
outflow boundary from an older, decayed MCS. The older boundary was
analyzed from between VRB-SUA across northern Lake Okeechobee to
near PGD, just east and north of VNC, near SRQ, and roughly 10-15 NM
offshore Pinellas County. That portion of this boundary near the
Gulf coast has stalled, and may be retreating slowly eastward toward
areas between SRQ-PIE. Northeast of the boundary, relatively
cool/stable outflow air will reduce the potential for damaging gusts
to reach the surface, with eastward extent. Within and west of its
narrow, mesobeta-scale baroclinic zone, the air mass is richly
moist, unstable, and weakly convergent, acting as a potential focus
for maintenance of the eastern part of the newer MCS as the latter
obliquely approaches the coast. Modified RAOBs and RAP soundings
suggest dew points mid-70s to 80 F and seasonably steep
low/middle-level lapse rates supporting MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg along
and southwest of the boundary, within minimal CINH, while CINH
increases to its northeast and inland.

Northwesterly 35-45-kt effective-shear vectors also are evident over
the TBW region and northwestward, and forced ascent related to
cold-pool processes may maintain the MCS longer than progged by
CAMs. However, both deep shear and low-level lift decrease markedly
with southward extent toward FMY, away from the boundary and from
the stronger winds aloft. As such, the most probable area of the
coastline to be affected by marginal severe-wind potential the next
few hours is over the discussion area.

..Edwards/Peters.. 07/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON 28818267 28668249 28418239 28018225 27598237 26968238
27608280 27858283 28248279 28648265 28738266 28818267



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