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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1135

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 22, 2018 18:55:55
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 221855
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221855
    NDZ000-SDZ000-222130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

    Areas affected...Central Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 221855Z - 222130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon across the
    central Dakotas. The primary threats will be hail/wind.

    DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms are moving across northern North
    Dakota as an upper-level trough over Saskatchewan is providing
    ascent aloft over the area. A surface boundary/trough stretching
    from north-central North Dakota southward through northwest Nebraska
    and surface low near PHP should help focus convection this
    afternoon. Storms will develop in an environment conducive for
    severe weather characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE
    1500-2500 J/kg) and shear (effective bulk shear 30-45 knots). Given
    the amount of CAPE/shear and orientation of the shear to the
    boundary, a broken line of cells are expected to develop along the
    surface boundary/trough and move east-southeast.

    Visible satellite imagery shows a stratus field across portions of
    central North Dakota ahead of the elevated storms, which could limit instability and the overall severe threat for this area. However,
    farther south, severe hail/wind are possible where daytime heating
    should increase the chances of surface-based storms. A watch is
    possible given the likelihood of severe storms although coverage may
    be problematic given the stratus layer.

    ..Nauslar/Dial.. 07/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 48979793 48539786 47239832 46219870 45339894 43909932
    43479952 43780030 44030143 44130195 44620182 45310159
    46170127 46490112 47470064 48970008 48959992 48979947
    48979793



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