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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1086

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 19, 2018 19:33:16
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 191933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191932
    IAZ000-MOZ000-192130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1086
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

    Areas affected...Central/south-central Iowa...north-central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 191932Z - 192130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Instability is increasing across the discussion area.
    Strong shear and low-level hodograph turning near a surface warm
    front will lead to storms capable of all severe hazards. A WW may be
    needed in the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Destabilization has begun to increase in the wake of
    earlier convection across south-central Iowa as evidenced by a
    broader area of agitated cumulus, from near Des Moines, IA
    south/southwestward into north-central Missouri, appearing on
    visible satellite imagery over the past hour. RAP analysis shows
    approximately 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With the approach of another
    lobe of mid-level vorticity, increasing synoptic ascent should lead
    to initiation of scattered severe thunderstorms along and near the
    surface warm front. Strong effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts
    will support organized storms capable of large hail and damaging
    wind gusts. Furthermore, RAP analyzed effective SRH values of
    100-200 m2/s2 -- supported by KDMX and KDVN VAD data -- coupled with
    a very moist boundary layer and backed surface flow near the
    boundary, suggests a couple of tornadoes will be possible. A WW is
    possible in the next hour or two.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 42229389 42269294 41659236 40609205 40349246 40269330
    40329393 40829423 41949415 42229389



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