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ACUS11 KWNS 231509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231509
SCZ000-GAZ000-231715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Areas affected...Parts of coastal South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231509Z - 231715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible along parts of the South Carolina coast this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar data this morning depict a likely MCV lifting
north across the Savannah, GA area. Warm advection/low-level
confluence attendant to this MCV is focusing a band of convection
that extends to the southeast offshore the coast. As the primary
warm front remains farther south, onshore surface temperatures/dew
points are only in the lower/mid 60s across coastal South Carolina,
resulting in meager surface-based buoyancy. Still, a few stronger
gusts have been reported recently near the GA/SC border, likely
aided by weak low-level rotation in these cells lifting northeast.
KCLX VWP data show notable veering of winds with height, favorable
for continued weak rotation. In turn, localized strong, damaging
gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado may be possible near the
coast into early afternoon.

..Picca/Hart.. 04/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

LAT...LON 32208132 32908033 33157998 33147970 32937949 32657966
32288028 31828089 31788118 31938130 32208132



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ACUS11 KWNS 081011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081011
FLZ000-ALZ000-081145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...western FL Panhandle into far southeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081011Z - 081145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible, mainly across
Okaloosa and Walton Counties in the FL Panhandle over the next hour
as a bowing line segment moves inland. The overall threat is
expected to remain marginal and a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment has intensified over the Gulf,
just offshore from Okaloosa County FL. As the bow tracks northeast
at around 40 mph early this morning, a few strong wind gusts around
40-50 mph will be possible. Based on latest velocity data from KEVX,
low level inhibition is likely reducing severe wind potential as
velocity continues to decrease as the bow moves inland closer to the
radar. Additional weakening with time is expected due to weak
instability and a strengthening low level inversion away from the
immediate coast. The strongest gusts will likely remain confined to
areas closer to the coast for this reason. Given the marginal nature
of the threat, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30378680 30898666 31258613 31378579 31328546 31048523
30648533 30288563 30168598 30278630 30378680



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