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ACUS11 KWNS 190548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190547
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-190745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...East/Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far
Southwest IA...Far Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 190547Z - 190745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and hail are expected to
remain a threat during the next several hours as the cluster of
storms continues southeastward. WW likely.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a small but
well-defined convective system moving southeastward across eastern
NE at about 35 to 40 kt. Nocturnal stabilization has made the
downstream airmass less favorable for surface-based convection (i.e.
SBCIN is less than -50 J/kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Even so,
the very moist nature of the airmass, evidenced by dewpoints in the
mid 70s and 100mb mean mixing ratios around 16 g per kg, and at
least moderately steep mid-level lapse rates result in enough
instability to maintain elevated convection. Moisture gradient
between the drier conditions of the middle MS Valley and more moist
conditions across the central Plains will provide a favored track
for the system. As such, the general expectation is for the system
to continue southeastward for the next several hours, eventually
reaching far northeast KS and far northwest MO. Strong to severe
wind gusts and isolated hail appear probable as this system
continues southeastward and a watch will be needed to cover this
persisting threat.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40039804 41069843 41729809 42099709 41289555 40019502
39489671 40039804



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