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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1119

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 21, 2018 17:37:49
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 211737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211737
    FLZ000-GAZ000-211900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

    Areas affected...far southern Georgia and northern Florida

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299...

    Valid 211737Z - 211900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind will persist another 2-3
    hours as storms continue through far southern Georgia into northern
    Florida. A downstream WW is not anticipated, but a portion of WW 299
    can be locally extended farther southeast if needed.

    DISCUSSION...Line of storms from the eastern FL panhandle into
    extreme southern GA continues developing southward at around 35 mph.
    The storms are embedded within modest (20-30 kt) west northwesterly
    deep-layer flow, and the downstream boundary layer has destabilized
    with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Some small bowing segments continue to
    be observed within the line. However there has been a slight
    weakening trend, possibly due to storms having moved south of
    stronger winds aloft as well as poor mid-level lapse rates
    associated with very warm air (-3.6 C) with an inversion at 500 mb. Nevertheless, low-level convergence along the leading gust front and
    strong heating of the moist surface layer should continue to support
    forward propagation next few hours along with a threat for isolated
    damaging wind into mid afternoon.

    ..Dial.. 07/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30228398 30508333 30458240 30508189 30598158 30128150
    29638197 29648326 30228398



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