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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1102

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 20, 2018 18:24:15
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201824
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201823
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-202000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1102
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201823Z - 202000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat of a few damaging gusts and marginally severe hail
    remains possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is not currently
    anticipated, though.

    DISCUSSION...A few stronger cores have developed in west-central
    Mississippi along southward-advancing outflow from an earlier
    convective system. Although large-scale forcing and northerly
    mid-level flow decrease with southward extent, the downstream
    environment is characterized by rich boundary-layer theta-e with
    surface dew points in the upper 70s. Considering these unstable low
    levels, further southward propagation along one or more established
    cold pools is possible, if not probable. Adjusting the 12Z JAN
    sounding for regionally averaged surface conditions yields around
    2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst a steep lapse rate environment.
    Therefore, any stronger cores will be capable of damaging winds and
    perhaps isolated large hail. A lack of greater organization/coverage
    will likely preclude watch issuance; however, trends will continue
    to be monitored.

    ..Picca/Hart.. 07/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33618944 33028895 32178862 31578874 31478935 31649017
    31949076 32489095 33429108 33479085 33709019 33618944



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