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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1100

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 20, 2018 17:43:47
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201743
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201743
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-201915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1100
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Indiana and southern Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 201743Z - 201915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may be capable of damaging gusts,
    isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado this afternoon. While
    uncertain, trends could warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has organized along a front
    across northern Indiana this afternoon. Somewhat uni-directional
    deep-layer wind profiles are fostering this linear mode, which
    should depress the hail/tornado threat some. Nonetheless, heating
    near/ahead of this line and backed flow near a warm front just to
    the east may support a few severe cores over the next several hours.
    Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this line.
    However, a small corridor of favorable surface heating and low-level
    helicity (indicated by recent KIWX VWP data) near/just east of the
    warm front may support adequate low-level rotation for an embedded
    tornado or two. If convective trends continue upward, a watch could
    be needed.

    ..Picca/Hart.. 07/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...

    LAT...LON 42348619 42408571 42278523 41818497 40808475 40528489
    40238563 40198588 40398650 40788673 41888652 42348619



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