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ACUS11 KWNS 201426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201425
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-201630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Northeast AR...Far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201425Z - 201630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with the
evolving convective cluster across northeast/east-central AR. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms in place over northeast AR has
produced strong wind gust and occasional severe hail during the past
hour. Recent radar imagery suggests the storms have become more
linear in character as the cold pool surges southward/southeastward.
Additional development is possible along the southwestern flank of
this line as warm-air advection, supported by modest westerly flow
(confirmed by the KSRX and KLZK VAD wind profiles), feeds into this
area. Agitated cu on recent visible imagery appears to confirm this
process. Even with this occurring, there is some question to just
how strong this additional development will be and how organized the
cold pool will becoming, largely because warm low-level temperatures
(25 deg C at 850 mb on the 12Z LZK sounding) are acting to inhibit
overall updraft strength. However, given the very moist airmass,
seasonally steep lapse rates, and enhanced northwest flow aloft, the
potential exists for the development of a more organized/mature
convective line. Trends will be monitored closely for signs of a
maturing and/or surging convective line that would merit watch
issuance.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 35669250 36059187 35929084 35629043 35359026 35049021
34799029 34569043 34389058 34309085 34179145 34319212
34679246 35029263 35669250



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