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ACUS11 KWNS 170023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170023
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Wyoming...western Nebraska
and adjacent southern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 170023Z - 170230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to increase and organize
through the 7-10 PM MDT time frame, accompanied by increasing
potential for strong wind gusts across the Nebraska Panhandle,
including the Scottsbluff and Alliance areas. It remains possible
that a severe weather watch will become necessary this evening.

DISCUSSION...Coverage of vigorous thunderstorm development is in the
process of increasing along a low-level convergence zone now curving
from west of Winner SD through the northern Nebraska PANHANDLE.
This is likely being supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, and seems likely
to persist and increase further into this evening. This may
eventually be enhanced by the development of a 30 kt southerly
nocturnal low-level jet, as the boundary layer begins to decouple
during the 01-04Z time frame.

A consolidating and strengthening cold pool associated with this
activity, and perhaps another cluster of thunderstorms now spreading southeastward to the east of the Laramie Range, may eventually begin
to accelerate southward aided by modest northwesterly mid-level
flow. Although deep layer wind fields in general are currently
weak, veering with height is already contributing to sufficient
vertical shear for the evolution of an organized convective system,
and the strengthening low-level jet will increase this further.
This may be sufficient to support increasing potential for severe
convective surface gusts by late evening, if not earlier.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42600433 42870377 42790304 42840248 43110075 41480167
41270341 41700460 42280491 42600433



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