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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1044

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 21:48:11
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122147
    WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-122315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1044
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

    Areas affected...Southern MN and west-central WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 122147Z - 122315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this evening across
    southern MN into western WI. Damaging winds will be the main concern
    and a watch will likely be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite has shown growth in cumulus along the
    southward tracking cold front. Additionally, convection already
    ongoing in the vicinity of MSP has increased in intensity over the
    last 30 minutes or so. Most of the convection across central MN is
    behind the surface boundary and elevated. Midlevel lapse rates are
    modest, and this should limit hail potential with this convection,
    though some small hail is possible.

    This initial convection has quickly been undercut by the advancing
    boundary, however, as storms become better organized under the
    influence of 25-35 kt effective shear, some upscale growth is
    expected. This should allow for one of more bowing segments to
    develop along, or just ahead of the surface boundary. This
    convection should track east/southeast along the instability
    gradient across southern MN into western WI with damaging winds
    expected. A watch will likely be needed soon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 45359342 45449263 45419189 45179117 44769079 44329096
    43849167 43499385 43449633 43569680 44349667 44749581
    45159424 45359342



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