1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1041

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 04:43:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1531370593-38885-9839
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 120443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120442
    WIZ000-MNZ000-120645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1041
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

    Areas affected...Northern MN and extreme northwest WI

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

    Valid 120442Z - 120645Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat continues across the remaining
    portion of tornado watch 271 until 1 AM CDT. A new weather watch
    may be needed, if a fast-moving line of storms evolves from the
    ongoing storms in north-central Minnesota and tracks to the
    east-southeast.

    DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
    storms across northern MN, extending from southern Koochiching
    County to Becker County, and moving to the east-southeast at 20-25
    kt. This activity was continuing to become intense at times, given
    the presence of strong instability (MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg) across
    the warm sector. Although the CAMs suggest damaging winds could
    become the primary severe-weather threat, especially if a
    forward-propagating line can evolve from the ongoing storms, any
    storms interacting with the warm front could produce a tornado.
    However, further increase in surface-based inhibition should limit
    the tornado threat into the overnight.

    Meanwhile, the Operational HRRR, while indicating the current
    presence of storms in north-central MN, suggests this activity will
    weaken during the next 2-3 hours. This scenario is possible, given
    the lack of forcing aloft and strengthening surface-based inhibition
    each limiting upscale growth.

    ..Peters.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46689609 47659507 48239449 48589327 48369252 47959174
    47329154 46729121 46139176 45899292 45819344 45879422
    46079519 46459582 46689609



    ------------=_1531370593-38885-9839
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1531370593-38885-9839--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)