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ACUS11 KWNS 101651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101651
IAZ000-101815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101651Z - 101815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated, marginally severe thunderstorm is located
across northwest Iowa. Hail and wind will be the near-term threat.
If the thunderstorm persists into the afternoon, an uptick in wind
threat will be possible. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...A strong, isolated thunderstorm continues across
northwest Iowa, along the southwest side of a decaying mesoscale
convective system (MCS) across southern Minnesota. Although the
thunderstorm has moved south/southeast of the more organized
deep-layer flow, it is moving into an increasingly more favorable
thermodynamic environment. Coincidentally, mesoscale flow around the
periphery of the decaying MCS may locally augment the deep-layer
shear in the vicinity of the ongoing convection in the short term,
resulting in a small, locally favorable environment across northwest
into central Iowa for organized convection to sustain itself for a
few more hours. Isolated hail and wind may occur.

Uncertainty increases with the thunderstorm evolution in the longer
term. As the MCS continues to decay, the locally augmented
deep-layer shear should diminish. However, as the deep-layer shear
weakens, the thermodynamic environment should only become better
with time. Given the orientation of the low-level moisture field,
and the resultant instability axis, if the thunderstorm can persist
into the early afternoon, the potential will exist for a small,
bowing segment to evolve and push south-southeast toward the Des
Moines area. In this scenario, an local enhanced wind threat would
be the main severe hazard.

Given the uncertainties associated with this threat, no watch is
expected.

..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42639558 43249501 42859416 42599355 42329262 41699256
41389335 41599489 42639558



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