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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 08, 2018 04:44:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080444
    NDZ000-SDZ000-080645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1015
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 07 2018

    Areas affected...Northwest South Dakota...North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264...

    Valid 080444Z - 080645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue into the overnight
    period across parts of northwestern South Dakota and south-central
    North Dakota. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of
    thunderstorms straddling the South Dakota and North Dakota border to
    the southwest of Bismarck. The storms are located near the axis of
    strong instability which extends northeastward across southern and
    eastern North Dakota. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values along this
    corridor in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. The storms should continue
    to expand in coverage, moving northeastward along the corridor of
    strongest instability. Although the storms are elevated, the
    Bismarck WSR-88D VWP has about 40 kt of effective shear. This
    combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for
    supercells and isolated large hail. A wind damage threat should also
    exist along the leading edge of the stronger cells.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 07/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 46570272 45650298 44930281 45060187 45820000 46669836
    47289744 47709742 47989813 47679963 47010180 46570272



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