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ACUS11 KWNS 202325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202325
MOZ000-ARZ000-210100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

Valid 202325Z - 210100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary
severe-weather threat during the early evening across southwest and west-central Missouri, and counties east of WW 111.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery showed a progressive shortwave
trough tracking from eastern KS into the lower Missouri Valley, with
the southern portion of this trough glancing the northern extent of
greater instability across southern into central MO. Forcing for
ascent with the trough and an increase in low-level warm advection
into central/eastern MO through tonight (per a strengthening
southerly 850-mb jet) should maintain the potential for
showers/thunderstorms from west to east. Steep low-level lapse
rates located downstream of the ongoing storms moving into
south-central and central MO should aid in the potential for locally
strong wind gusts. This threat should continue for the next 2-3
hours (until 9-10 PM), prior to boundary-layer stabilization.
Despite the likelihood for convection to persist this evening into
tonight, a stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating and weak midlevel lapse rates suggest storm intensities
should wane with the onset of increasing surface-based inhibition.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 36099452 36849457 37879438 38439436 38679304 38739207
38149104 37499101 36599262 36379309 36099452



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ACUS11 KWNS 301648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301647
UTZ000-NVZ000-301915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...east-central Nevada into west-central Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301647Z - 301915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will develop this afternoon ahead of an near a cold
front, with damaging winds and marginal hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows stratus across a good part of
southern NV into southwest UT, indicative of moisture in place.
Meanwhile, the first CU were forming ahead of the cold front to the
northwest where heating is occurring. Over the next several hours,
heating will result in a mixing of the boundary layer and an erosion
of stratus which will be replaced by CU. Given cold temperatures
aloft, moisture will be sufficient to support several hundred J/kg
MUCAPE as the front approaches.

Since the air mass will become uncapped in advance of the front,
cellular activity is expected, potentially producing marginal hail.
A small supercell or two is possible. As the front merges with this
activity, a line of storms will form, with a threat of damaging
winds. Shear profiles and wind speeds aloft are impressive, further
suggesting a few severe storms are likely. The bulk of the strong
storms will remain north of Las Vegas, and south of Salt Lake City
through the day.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38831670 39611487 40301362 40401303 40351260 39571211
38641267 37911363 37541495 37401634 37831691 38111713
38831670



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