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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0474

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 20, 2018 18:24:16
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201824
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201823
    TXZ000-202030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0474
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

    Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201823Z - 202030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong storms could produce
    localized damaging wind gusts and small hail through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have become more numerous this afternoon
    along and ahead of an outflow boundary draped across parts of
    southern into eastern TX. A moderately unstable airmass with
    dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, coupled with modestly
    steep midlevel lapse rates will support a few stronger updrafts.
    Effective shear across the region remains weak, generally less than
    25 kt, with a few pockets approaching 30 kts. This will limit
    overall storm organization and longevity of any stronger updrafts.
    However, PW values greater than 1.75 inches and pockets of steeper
    low level lapse rates could result in some wet downburst potential. Additionally, any clusters that become better organized in the
    vicinity of the outflow boundary could produce strong gusts. Given
    the marginal and transient nature of the threat, a watch is not
    expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Weiss.. 05/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29520092 29770077 29870054 29929999 29869955 30009885
    30179834 30369795 31009691 31219648 31189603 30909574
    30529562 30039573 29609615 29219687 28379898 28030008
    28130029 28420044 28630055 28810065 29120078 29520092



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