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ACUS11 KWNS 030854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030854
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-031000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...central Mississippi and far west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152...

Valid 030854Z - 031000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152
continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorm cluster with a history of damaging
winds has dissipated. Although additional isolated thunderstorm may
develop and briefly produce gusty winds, the overall threat for
organized severe thunderstorms has diminished greatly.

DISCUSSION...The long-lived thunderstorm cluster that initially
originated in southeast Missouri has dissipated. At the same time,
briefly severe thunderstorms across northeast Mississippi have
weakened significantly. Continued decreasing of the low-level lapse
rates along with increasing convective inhibition likely contributed
to both of these scenarios.

Additional, isolated thunderstorms may develop across and close to
the watch area. Despite increasing convective inhibition,
most-unstable CAPE values locally in excess of 2000 J/kg will
support the occasional strong/intense updraft. Small hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible.

Given overall convective trends, decreasing effective bulk shear,
and the loss of storms-cale and mesoscale environmental augmentation
from long-lived thunderstorm clusters, widespread, organized severe
potential will remain low. Thus, portions, if not all, of WW 151 may
need to be canceled early.

..Marsh.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32609273 33089272 33779221 34239124 35118928 36038803
35718752 34928747 32788763 32288798 31928981 31939147
32399256 32609273



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