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ACUS11 KWNS 272230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272230
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Southwest Nebraska...Oklahoma Panhandle...Northern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

Valid 272230Z - 280030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail will continue for
portions of WW 124, particularly the northern portions. Storms are
expected to grow upscale within the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms within WW 124 have shown sustained MRMS
MESH values at or above an inch over the last hour or two. An
approaching mid-level wave and associated speed max have contributed
to ample 0-6 km shear values of 40-50 kts -- per KCYS and KFTG VAD
profiles -- allowing storms to remain organized in northeast
Colorado. Current expectations are for these storms to continue and
eventually grow upscale with the onset of a modestly strengthening southeasterly LLJ. Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be
the main threats.

Further south into southeast Colorado, dewpoints have fallen into
the 30s and 40s over the past few hours, and further development of
convection is unlikely. Into southwestern Kansas and the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles, some convection is ongoing, but exists within
an environment of only 30-35 kts of 0-6 km shear. Any storms that
continue may congeal into a loosely organized line within the next
few hours and may pose an isolated hail/wind threat.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35240024 35090068 35030152 35110215 35400249 36930309
37690336 38730430 39260468 39900544 40180572 40750584
40970561 40930223 40610175 39980154 38000084 36240030
35590004 35240024



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ACUS11 KWNS 052054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052054
KSZ000-052300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...West-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052054Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is possible across west-central KS
by 21-22Z. A conditional supercell threat exists if a storm forms.
Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus has recently been noted across
west-central KS, to the north of Great Bend. The potential for
initiation in the short term remains uncertain, given only weak
surface confluence noted in recent surface obs, but continued
heating should mostly remove any remaining MLCINH, so at least
isolated thunderstorm development is possible across this region
prior to 23Z. With moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg) and effective shear of 35-45 kt, a conditional
supercell threat will exist should any storms initiate. Very large
hail would be the primary threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates
and relatively cold midlevel temperatures.

Watch issuance is possible across this region, due to the potential
for initiation in the short-term, and also for the potential for
severe thunderstorms to develop upstream and move into this area
toward evening.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38369920 38729910 39119896 39139868 39189823 38089823
37699845 37579868 37489894 37469927 37589956 37749945
37939936 38369920



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