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ACUS11 KWNS 272048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272047
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Illinois...far southeastern Iowa...and
far eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272047Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind gust threat is possible
with the strongest storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the discussion area has lead to
the development of moderate/high instability with MLCAPE values
around 2000-3000 J/kg. While anemic deep-layer flow resides over the
area (e.g., generally less than 10 knots through cloud depth),
enough instability is present for a transient/pulse-type severe hail
and wind threat with the quasi-stationary thunderstorms. A
scattering of quarter-sized hail storm reports over the last hour
continue to support this assertion. Any threats would be short-lived
as updrafts struggle to persist amidst the weak deep-layer flow.
Storms should gradually weaken late this afternoon with the onset of
boundary layer stabilization due to nocturnal cooling. A WW issuance
is not expected due to the transient/isolated nature of the threats.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41859114 41809047 41589004 40868939 40868818 40068753
39408756 37998820 37648861 37678915 38099017 39189106
40559190 41859114



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ACUS11 KWNS 052004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052004
TXZ000-NMZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...far west Texas and the Transpecos region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052004Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is occurring over the
Davis Mountains/Transpecos region. Evolving/local risk for large
hail and damaging winds may eventually warrant WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible imagery shows isolated
thunderstorms increasing over the Davis mountains, and just east
along the dryline. Somewhat scant moisture in the immediate
vicinity of the initial convection is indicated, though a higher
theta-e/more unstable environment exists just east.

With time, expect storms to move/possibly propagate eastward, with
gradual increases in storm intensity possible. While some veering
with height is indicated in the flow field, somewhat weak magnitude
of the flow is also apparent. Still, given the steep lapse rates
aloft -- and degree of CAPE just east of the current convection,
flow will likely be sufficient for at least some mid-level rotation,
and thus risk for large hail locally. In addition, the rather deep
mixed layer also indicates some risk for gusty/damaging downdrafts
this afternoon, and into the evening across this area.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30410495 31950431 32540457 32860351 32750208 31820145
30610129 29690172 29620251 28800316 29290443 30410495



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