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ACUS11 KWNS 271912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912
MIZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271912Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon with an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat
possible in the strongest storms. A WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and NLDN lightning data at
1900 UTC show that thunderstorms are beginning to form over portions
of north-central Michigan as a weak mid-level shortwave trough
approaches. These storms are forming in an environment characterized
by strong heating (e.g., MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg) and
effective bulk shear values of 20-30 knots (greatest near Lake
Huron). Storms that move through this environment will be capable of
producing at least isolated instances of severe hail and damaging
wind gusts as they move southeastward. Any storms should gradually
weaken later this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes with the
onset of nocturnal cooling. At this time, the coverage of severe
threats appears too low for a WW issuance.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44168505 44558450 44908393 45088359 45138332 45148306
44538279 44238270 43848267 43648267 43378271 43208285
42938306 42788333 42728375 42738417 42848461 43128504
43418535 43808555 44168505



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ACUS11 KWNS 051926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051926
KSZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051926Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase with time
this afternoon. Hail (potentially very large) and severe wind gusts
will be the primary threats. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across far
western KS, with additional cumulus noted along a weak cold front
across northwest KS. The short-term evolution of the ongoing storms
is uncertain due to lingering MLCINH immediately downstream, but
continued heating south the cold front will further erode the cap
with time, increasing the potential for sustained surface-based
storms, both near the cold front and along a diffuse dryline across
southwest KS.

Despite relatively limited boundary-layer moisture, cold
temperatures aloft (-15C to -18C at 500 mb) at steep midlevel lapse
rates are supporting MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg across far western
KS to around 2000 J/kg further east, per 19Z objective mesoanalysis.
Modest westerly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40
kt, which will support the potential for organized structures with
time. While large-scale ascent is rather limited, a few supercells
may eventually evolve later this afternoon. The environment will be
quite favorable for hail, and a conditional threat for very large
hail will be present with any supercell. Isolated severe wind gusts
will also be possible.

While the short-term coverage of the severe threat remains
uncertain, watch issuance is possible at some point this afternoon
for portions of western KS if development of additional storms
appears imminent.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38850193 39360099 39640049 39770022 39679946 39239909
38739917 38119940 37739961 37599983 37500035 37620163
38000189 38850193



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