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ACUS11 KWNS 140014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140014
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Western OK...Northwest TX...Eastern
TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87...

Valid 140014Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87
continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is expected with ongoing storms
this evening, though some hail/wind risk will continue in the short
term.

DISCUSSION...At 00Z, intense thunderstorms are ongoing from
southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, generally along and east of a northwestward-retreating surface boundary. A gradual decreasing
trend has been noted with many of cells over the past hour, and a
general decreasing trend is expected to continue into the evening as surface-based CINH increases. However, strong instability and
sufficient effective shear will continue to support a hail/wind
threat for at least the next 1-2 hours, especially across the
eastern TX Panhandle where several cell mergers are ongoing, and
also across southwest KS in the vicinity of the surface boundary.
Isolated instances of very large hail remain possible in the short
term given the magnitude of instability.

Later tonight, an increasing low-level jet will support development
of elevated convection to the north of the surface boundary. Some
hail risk may accompany this activity, though any such risk would
likely remain north of areas currently in WW 87.

..Dean.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33450151 35910113 38090012 38529960 38589859 37409857
35889882 34599937 34149961 33589965 33450023 33450151



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ACUS11 KWNS 191720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191720
FLZ000-191845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 87...

Valid 191720Z - 191845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Approaching squall line, with preceding semi-discrete
convection, will likely pose some severe risk across parts of
central Florida within the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts are
anticipated to be the main threat, though a brief tornado or two may
occur with the most intense storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be issued downstream.

DISCUSSION...A mature squall line is currently propagating eastward
into central Florida, with semi-discrete cells ongoing from Hardee
to Collier County Florida. These storms are evolving within a
moderately buoyant (i.e. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment, driven
primarily by 7.5 C/km low-level lapse rates and relatively deep
low-level moisture. Bulk effective shear values of up to 40 knots is
present across the Florida Peninsula, but the bulk shear vectors are
oriented roughly parallel with the line, with a modest low-level
shear environment present.

Portions of the squall line farther north have produced sporatic
wind damage, with the aforementioned semi-discrete convection
producing gusts around 50 knots near Fort Meyers Beach within the
past hour. Current thermodynamic environment, as well as the latest high-resolution model guidance, both suggest that potential exists
for additional damaging wind gusts to occur, with a potential uptick
expected across central FL in the near-term. A tornado or two is
also possible, both with the more organized cells ahead of the
squall line, and along the leading portions of squall line itself.
The best chance for a tornado would be farther north, where
deep-layer ascent and low-level shear is relatively stronger. Still,
overall modest low-level shear suggests that damaging gusts should
be the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
issued downstream to address the increasing damaging wind threat for
portions of central Florida.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25958184 26478240 27828298 28598296 29688232 30198196
30298144 29468108 28218040 27318038 26078118 25958184



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