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ACUS11 KWNS 132300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132300
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Areas affected...Southeast OH to Northern VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86...

Valid 132300Z - 140000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues across ww86. Primary
threats remain hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed along
northern-eastern periphery of stronger boundary-layer heating from
southern OH into northern VA. This activity might be aided in part
by a remnant disturbance from overnight convection that has since
migrated into central PA. Deep westerly flow should encourage these
storms to sag southeast this evening with an attendant threat for
hail/wind. Coverage may be somewhat less than Saturday evening but
otherwise similar in storm mode/severe potential, but displaced a
bit west.

..Darrow.. 05/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 40748145 38717669 37527733 39548214 40748145



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ACUS11 KWNS 191630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191629
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas to southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 191629Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon hours. Some tornado potential exists with damaging winds
becoming more likely later with a squall line.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal low-level warm advection has been primarily responsible for ongoing band of convection across the eastern
Carolinas into southeast VA. Within this band, several long-lived
updrafts have exhibited rotation which is to be expected given the
observed environmental shear. There is some concern for isolated
supercells and tornadoes within this regime. However, a more
concentrated squall line should surge into this region ahead of the
short wave later this afternoon. Damaging winds are expected with
this convection.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON 33987997 38097732 36627620 33247811 33987997



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