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ACUS11 KWNS 242216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242216
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Mid Atlantic and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242216Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms along a cold front from southeastern
upstate New York to central Maryland are moving into a modestly
unstable air mass. Storms will pose a threat for an isolated severe
wind gust over the next hour or two. A WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Storms have fired along a cold front with aid from a
mid-level wave now over central Pennsylvania. These storms are
moving into a modestly unstable air mass characterized by 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong effective deep-layer shear of 35-50 kts is
present due to the influence of the nearby upper-level trough. Even
with ample shear for storm organization, low- and mid-level lapse
rates are not particularly steep. However, an isolated severe wind
gust is possible. The overall threat for severe weather is minimal
enough that a WW is not expected.

..Wendt.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41957439 41507362 40697377 39757404 39357433 39057589
39317669 39927696 41267572 41867509 41957439



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