This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1529821527-7074-1578
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 240625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240625
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kansas and central/northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...

Valid 240625Z - 240800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of strong, damaging winds
continue to move east-southeast across portions of southwest Kansas
and are now beginning to impact northwest Oklahoma. These
thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours posing a
continued threat of strong winds and some hail.

DISCUSSION...Well organized mesoscale convective system (MCS)
continues to move east-southeast across southwest Kansas. The
leading edge of the MCS is characterized by a bow echo that has
produced measured wind gusts in excess of 60 knots within the past
few hours. This MCS appears to move moving along the north side of a
strong 850 theta-e gradient, which loosely coincides with the
most-unstable CAPE gradient.

In the near-term, expectation is that this MCS will continue along
the 850 millibar theta-e gradient. This would take the MCS across
north-central Oklahoma and far southern south-central Kansas. Given
the organization of the MCS and an environment characterized by
most-unstable CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg within the CAPE
reservoir to the south and deep layer shear of 35-50 knots, severe
thunderstorm winds and possibly some hail will remain possible
through the morning hours. A local extension of WW208 or possibly a
new WW across portions of northeast Oklahoma may be necessary later
this morning and the evolution of the ongoing MCS will be monitored
for this need.

One potential hindrance to the longevity of the MCS (and in turn WW
issuance needs) is the ongoing convection across central and eastern
Oklahoma that is moving north into northeast Oklahoma. As this
convection moves into northeast Oklahoma, it could exhaust some of
the higher octane airmass across central Oklahoma. This would induce
a weakening trend within the aforementioned MCS as it moves into and
through Oklahoma.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35029783 35769948 36750116 37179956 37989922 36689635
36229563 35299579 34819644 35029783



------------=_1529821527-7074-1578
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1529821527-7074-1578--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)