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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0770

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 17, 2018 20:53:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 172053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172052
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-172145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0770
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of the mid Missouri Valley to southern
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 172052Z - 172145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and some marginally severe hail
    possible with developing storms through this evening. The threat
    should remain too localized/disorganized for watch issuance, though.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have formed within a moist, uncapped
    environment along and ahead of a front extending from northeast
    Nebraska into southern Minnesota this afternoon. Given only
    weak/modest forcing for ascent, generally veered surface flow ahead
    of the front, and unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, development of
    stronger cells should be a gradual process. Despite these factors,
    effective shear around 30 kt and MLCAPE near 1000-2000 J/kg could
    support multicell clusters or even brief supercells, capable of a
    few stronger gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. The threat
    will likely remain too isolated/marginal for watch issuance, though.

    ..Picca/Grams.. 06/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 42269799 43579752 43899707 44579569 44689418 44129399
    43519425 41219556 41049564 40509615 40479685 41129775
    41859809 42109804 42269799



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