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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0766

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 17, 2018 18:17:56
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 171817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171817
    WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-172045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0766
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0117 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast ID and adjacent areas of Far Southwest
    MT/Western WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 171817Z - 172045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms will increase
    this afternoon. Marginally severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado
    will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has begun to increase across southeast ID,
    in advance of a deep-layer cyclone moving slowly eastward into the
    Great Basin. Modest diabatic heating and low-level moisture, in
    combination with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates, will support
    MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Sufficient
    effective shear (35-45 kt) and generally long, straight hodographs
    will support the potential for at least a couple splitting
    supercells, with a corresponding risk of severe hail/wind. A brief
    tornado will also be possible with any right-moving supercell,
    particularly across portions of the upper Snake River valley where
    low-level flow will remain locally backed.

    With large-scale ascent expected to continue into this evening, a
    low-end severe threat will likely persist across this region for
    several hours. However, watch issuance is not anticipated given the
    expected isolated coverage and marginal nature of the threat.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

    LAT...LON 42281240 42111396 42761386 43361390 43871366 44701206
    44641078 44071066 42601058 42261192 42281240



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