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ACUS11 KWNS 281932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281931
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Missouri...western Iowa...and
far southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281931Z - 282200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
isolated instances of severe hail and wind gusts. A WW is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and radar/lightning data from
1930Z shows thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the discussion
area. Strong heating over the area and a moist boundary layer --
especially over Missouri and southern Iowa -- has allowed for
moderate/high instability to develop with MLCAPE values up to 3000
J/kg. While strong instability is present, deep-layer shear is very
low as tropospheric flow remains rather anemic (e.g., 15 knots or
less at 500 mb), which will limit storm organization. Nevertheless,
the strongest storms -- mainly those with the most persistent
updrafts -- will pose at least some risk for isolated pulse-type
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. The diurnally-driven
storms should gradually weaken this evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes. The coverage of severe threats is expected to be too low
for a WW issuance.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40629521 41219529 41669529 42009512 42599411 42379316
42009247 41399228 40249264 38829217 38489209 38099203
37829200 37679208 37609262 37819366 38189405 38849461
40629521



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