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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0482

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 21, 2018 20:15:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 212015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212015
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-212115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of the mid Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 212015Z - 212115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across
    southern/central Indiana this afternoon, before moving into western
    Ohio this evening. A few could become severe, with a primary threat
    of damaging winds. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Aided by broad/modest forcing for ascent along the
    southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow, a
    corridor of more vigorous convection has organized from western
    Kentucky to southern Indiana late this afternoon. These cells appear
    to be focused by differential heating on the edge of a mid/upper
    cloud canopy associated with a warm-advection corridor ahead of the
    primary cyclone. Regardless, cells over Kentucky are likely too far
    south for sufficient organization (owing to weaker flow aloft) to
    pose a sustained severe threat. Visible satellite data are
    consistent with this conclusion, in that they show rather circular
    anvil evolution, which would suggest weak mid/upper storm-relative
    flow.

    Farther north, although mixed-layer buoyancy is not as robust, weak
    southerly warm/moist advection and adequate insolation are yielding
    upwards of 500-1000 J/kg at present. Mid-level flow is slightly
    stronger than points farther south as well, and recent KIND VWP data
    sampled bulk 0-6km shear of 30-35 kt. Therefore, the strongest cells
    may organize into occasional multicell or weak supercell structures
    (especially as they reach greater boundary-layer moisture near the
    IN/OH border) through early evening. Thereafter, an evolution into
    localized bowing segments is possible, given relatively straight
    hodographs. Such evolution would promote a few damaging gusts as the
    primary threat, and convective trends will be monitored for possible
    watch issuance.

    ..Picca/Weiss.. 05/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 38338762 39218703 40408564 40948467 40988386 40818339
    40528325 40138320 39518344 38878438 38328525 37938645
    37848726 37918771 38338762



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 19:56:52
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301956
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301956
    OKZ000-TXZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

    Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

    Valid 301956Z - 302200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

    SUMMARY...Recent trends suggest possible storm initiation across
    southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas, with a corridor of tornado
    and damaging wind threat along the front.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface obs, including the Oklahoma Mesonet,
    show a low developing near the stationary front centered over Caddo
    county. In addition, surface observations indicate gusty southeast
    winds of 25-30 mph blowing toward the low, suggesting favorable mass
    response with pressure falls.

    Substantial low-level moisture exists along this boundary, extending
    from northwest TX into central OK. In addition, radar trends show
    showers and a few storms beginning to form from Wilbarger county TX
    toward Caddo/Grady counties as of 20Z.

    The TLX VWP shows over 300 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, while latest
    objective analysis also shows substantial surface vorticity in place
    near the front.

    Therefore, any storms that develop may proceed northeast nearly
    parallel to the front, and if they do, could pose a tornado threat,
    as well as damaging winds if they grow upscale into an MCS.

    ..Jewell.. 04/30/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 35419721 35319721 35239738 35029772 34739815 34409851
    33969873 33529902 33319930 33369959 33609961 33959940
    34459916 34959885 35259821 35519780 35659746 35629728
    35419721



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