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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 21, 2018 19:30:55
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211930
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211930
    WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-212030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the upper Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 211930Z - 212030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps an
    instance of marginally severe hail exists late this afternoon across
    parts of the upper Ohio Valley. The threat will likely remain too
    unorganized for watch issuance, however.

    DISCUSSION...After developing within a weak warm-advection regime
    over southwest Ohio this morning, thunderstorms have slowly evolved
    eastward this afternoon, with some recent southward component of
    propagation into stronger instability. One cell over Washington Co,
    OH, has exhibited a deepening reflectivity core over the last hour
    or so, likely in response to ongoing boundary-layer destabilization.
    While flow aloft is not particularly impressive, these cells exist
    on the southern fringe of stronger 500mb westerlies, with about 25
    kt of effective shear promoting multicellular evolution. As
    convection continues east/southeast, a few instances of gusty,
    potentially damaging winds may be realized. Relatively poor
    mid-level lapse rates will temper hail growth aloft, but an instance
    of marginally severe hail could occur as well. Considering the
    low-end nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Picca/Weiss.. 05/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

    LAT...LON 38988262 39578178 39738048 39718036 39598014 39217992
    38908008 38658040 38118132 38018162 38278221 38628274
    38988262



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 19:06:52
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 301906
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301906
    TXZ000-NMZ000-302130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

    Areas affected...the South Plains of west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 301906Z - 302130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated storms producing large hail are expected
    across parts of the South Plains. The existing Slight Risk area will
    be expanded westward at 20Z.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows stratus associated with cold air
    behind the front eroding, with heating expanding north. CU fields
    are expanding near this boundary, from southeast NM into northwest
    TX.

    While early attempts of initiation have failed due to storm motion
    carrying the updrafts into the stable air, a gradual mixing of the
    cool side of the front along with heating and southerly low-level
    winds may eventually allow for sustained severe storms capable of
    large hail. A tornado is possible along eastern portions of the
    front into northwest TX.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/30/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33989970 33739944 33279949 32870037 32660107 32460207
    32480250 32710287 33130314 33820325 34140326 34310304
    34420260 34290169 34170146 34060110 33940050 33989970



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