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ACUS11 KWNS 142323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142322
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...VA...MD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...92...

Valid 142322Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88, 92
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe squall line with damaging winds and large hail will
surge across northern portions of ww92 shortly.

DISCUSSION...Organized severe squall line has evolved into a mature
MCS as it surged across ww88. Damaging winds and large hail have
been reported along the leading edge of this complex of storms.
Considerable amount of precip has developed in the wake of the
strongest cores which is contributing to a cold pool that is aiding
southeast movement. MCS should continue propagating toward southeast
VA at roughly 35kt with an attendant hail/wind threat.

..Darrow.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37777942 38017837 38547737 39417689 38807608 37307649
37137838 37777942



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ACUS11 KWNS 220012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220012
NEZ000-220215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Central and Southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220012Z - 220215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is occurring which should to a few
strong storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps some large hail.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar shows convection
developing near Kearney, Nebraska in proximity to the intersection
of a cold front and pre-frontal trough with an attendant weak
surface low. The environment is supportive of at least a couple
strong storms should this trend continue, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and low-level 0-3 km shear of 22 kt (per the UEX VAD). The
latest RAP forecast soundings indicates a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer, with surface dewpoints in the low 50s F, suggesting storms
that develop will be capable of gusty winds, but given the modest
instability, some large hail is also possible. Storms are expected
to remain isolated over the next 2-3 hours, thus a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Karstens/Hart.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40069823 40069864 40409880 40549919 40639948 40839953
41149896 41639769 41629652 41039623 40569653 40209745
40069823



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