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ACUS11 KWNS 141937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141937
ILZ000-MOZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...central/northern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 141937Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
discussion area the remainder of this afternoon with a risk for
large hail and damaging winds. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
issued prior to 20Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows deepening cumulus in the
vicinity of the front over central/northern IL at 1935Z, and
modification of the special KDVN sounding for current conditions
shows little remaining CINH. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
and will likely become severe over the next few hours given an
environment characterized by moderate surface-based instability and
40-45 kts of deep-layer wind shear. Damaging winds and large hail
will be possible, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued
prior to 20Z.

..Bunting/Grams.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 39369011 39329084 39699108 40119126 40459113 41069067
41578989 41938861 41978777 40568766 40098782 39808872
39369011



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ACUS11 KWNS 200030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200029
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...eastern Maryland...eastern Virginia and southern
New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 200029Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat may develop into the DelMarVa region during
the next hour and eventually into southern New Jersey. Damaging wind
and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats. Trends are being
monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms from central PA through eastern VA is
moving northeast at 50+ kt. Organized structures continue to be
observed within the line including bowing segments and some
supercells. The thermodynamic environment appears similar downstream
from the line over the DelMarVa region with 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE, but
based on the WAL 00Z RAOB, some marine influence in the form of a
shallow stable layer exists over a portion of this region. The
low-level jet strengthening to 65+ kt will maintain large 0-1 km
hodographs favorable for occasional mesocyclones and bowing segments
within the line. The marginal thermodynamic environment might serve
as a limiting factor. However, If storms maintain their structure as
they continue northeast, a tornado watch will probably be needed for
a portion of this region.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

LAT...LON 39797432 39197503 38427522 38177557 38937600 40047543
39797432



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