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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0782

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 18, 2018 20:05:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 182004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182004
    NYZ000-PAZ000-182030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0782
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

    Areas affected...central NY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

    Valid 182004Z - 182030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Localized strong thunderstorm gusts (40-55mph) capable of
    wind damage are possible for the next several hours as thunderstorms
    move from west to east across central NY.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of thunderstorms
    over NY. The more robust storms are moving through the Hudson
    Valley currently (as of 4pm EDT) and will move into southern
    VT/western MA during the 4-5pm EDT period. Subjective surface
    mesoanalysis places a convective cold pool over western NY in
    association with convective overturning with the western NY
    thunderstorm cluster. NY Mesonet sites have correspondingly cooled
    by 15 degrees F in the rain-cooled air. When accounting for
    observed surface conditions with the 18Z Buffalo, NY RAOB, yields
    only weak buoyancy (500 J/kg MLCAPE). Current thinking is the
    inability for strong heating to occur in wake of the rain/cloud
    debris will inhibit weak destabilization for later convective
    activity in association with the cold front later this evening.
    However, farther east in central NY, surface temperatures in the
    lower 90s will remain supportive for localized strong gusts capable
    of pockets of wind damage through the late afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 06/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 43167388 43317466 43037559 42697628 42427717 42117701
    41887428 42217348 42687340 43167388



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