This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1529346873-1857-18005
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 181834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181834
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-181930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western/Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181834Z - 181930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop/strengthen this afternoon
and into the evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus cloud field is looking increasingly agitated
within the warm sector across eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and northern/central Kansas. A surface front is oriented southwest to
northeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and a surface
trough extends from east-central Nebraska south through central
Kansas. Additionally, an upper-level shortwave is currently moving
over the region. The surface front/trough, upper-level shortwave,
and strong diabatic heating (surface temperatures in the low 90s)
with ample surface moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) should erode the
weak cap and initiate convection this afternoon. Widespread storms
will develop, and strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg) will allow
these storms to mature quickly.

The flow aloft and shear are marginal, but low-level shear should
increase near the surface trough/front and be adequate enough to
support some supercells within a larger, loosely organized
multi-cellular cluster. Large hail and damaging winds are most
likely. A tornado threat may be focused along the surface front in
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

..Nauslar/Weiss.. 06/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 43149563 43309442 43429348 43279292 42769277 42109317
41359404 40709533 40459600 40129715 40129806 40189831
40599851 41289848 41839838 42229809 42599763 43149563



------------=_1529346873-1857-18005
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1529346873-1857-18005--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)