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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 04, 2018 19:48:31
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 041948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041947
    MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-042145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Mon Jun 04 2018

    Areas affected...Far east-northeast Idaho...southwest to central
    Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 041947Z - 042145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe capable of mainly marginally severe hail
    and wind gusts are possible later this afternoon. A WW issuance is
    not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...An agitated cumulus field is currently established from
    the Idaho-Montana border into central parts of Montana, amidst an
    environment characterized by SBCAPE of over 500-1000 J/kg from the
    western portions of the discussion area to nearly 2000 J/kg farther
    east. Strong bulk effective shear of 50+ kts over the area along
    with the available buoyancy suggest that storm organization may
    occur. Given relatively dry profiles from the surface to 700 mb (as
    evident in the 19Z TFX sounding), damaging wind gusts are possible
    given the depth for which evaporative cooling would take place.
    Steep lapse rates aloft would also suggest that marginally severe
    hail may also be possible.

    Given the isolated and marginal extent of severe expected, a WW is
    not currently anticipated, though convective trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    ..Squitieri/Cook.. 06/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 46051446 46361411 47041324 47691235 48241169 48591108
    48541012 48350901 48000860 46930808 46450785 45670803
    45090911 44980998 44881103 44701190 44571281 44751347
    45161429 46051446



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