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ACUS11 KWNS 182155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182155
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...far
southeast New York...Connecticut...northern Rhode
Island...Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182155Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail
possible, especially in portions of New England. Convective trends
are being monitored for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters are in progress across
portions of New England down into the Hudson Valley. The ambient
environment is characterized by deep moisture, with PWAT values of
up to 2 inches in some locations, especially over New England. Rich
low-level moisture and strong surface heating is the main source of
buoyancy, given poor mid-level lapse rates (5.5 C/km on average).

Given modest mid-level flow and associated effective bulk shear
along with modest instability, the severe threat is expected to be
isolated in extent. Marginally severe hail is possible, along with
damaging wind gusts induced by wet downbursts. As storms are driven
primarily by the strong surface heating, a decrease in coverage and
intensity is expected after sunset. Storms may also weaken as they
approach the marine layer situated near the coast.

A WW is currently not anticipated but convective trends will be
monitored

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40787689 40777636 41117547 41687443 42197355 42477230
42517202 42667167 42687148 42667123 42617094 42577089
42127111 41667179 41167316 40587388 40217454 40197517
40417626 40787689



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