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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0496

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 22, 2018 23:25:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222325
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222324
    VAZ000-MDZ000-230100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0624 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

    Areas affected...Southern MD and southeast VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116...

    Valid 222324Z - 230100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, though the
    overall severe-weather threat across the remainder of WW 116 is
    expected to undergo a further diminishing trend.

    DISCUSSION...At 2315Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of storms
    extending from Dorchester County, MD into far southern MD (St.
    Mary's County) and far southeast VA (James City County), with this
    line moving east at 25 kt. The environment immediately downstream
    is gradually stabilizing per objective analyses, while stronger
    shear that would support organized storms is located north of these
    storms in northern MD to DE. Given the slow storm motion,
    unfavorable thermodynamics and kinematics, and the onset of diabatic
    cooling stabilizing the boundary layer, parts or most of the
    remainder of WW 116 could be canceled early.

    ..Peters.. 05/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37287795 37927705 38717661 38637609 37887599 37307627
    37177671 37227740 37287795



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 01, 2019 22:38:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012238
    KSZ000-COZ000-012345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 012238Z - 012345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Southeast Colorado is being monitored for storm
    development in the next 1-2 hours. While storm coverage will likely
    remain isolated at best, one or two supercells may develop with a
    threat of large hail and locally severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...The 22Z surface analysis depicts a 1005 mb low across
    far southeast CO, with a stationary front extending east-southeast
    into northwest OK, and a dryline running north-south from the
    eastern OK Panhandle into the TX Big Bend region. Along and just
    north of the stationary front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s F
    dewpoints is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, with MLCINH
    becoming minimal near the boundary where surface temperatures have
    warmed into the 70s F.

    While large-scale ascent appears to be weak at best across the area,
    continued convergence near the surface low and the attendant
    boundaries should eventually result in at least isolated storm
    development. Low-level easterly flow veering to moderate westerly
    flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than
    sufficient for supercell development. If a supercell can develop,
    long hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates will support a large
    hail threat, with locally severe wind gusts also possible. While
    low-level shear is relatively weak, a tornado could also not be
    ruled out with any sustained supercell, given the presence of
    low-level vorticity near the surface boundaries.

    Given the uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms across this
    area, it is unclear if a watch will be needed, though a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch is possible if one or more substantial supercells
    appear imminent.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37640375 38430367 38450309 38300234 38060158 37820078
    37380044 37140059 37070115 37130330 37640375



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